Land use and vegetation changes in three Mexican Basins with Markov Models
In recent decades, anthropogenic activity has driven deforestation or the replacement of natural ecosystems, particularly forests, subsequently diminishing their capacity to provide a range of environmental services crucial for ensuring human well-being. Understanding land-use change dynamics and id...
| Autors principals: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Online |
| Idioma: | spa |
| Publicat: |
Instituto de Ecología, A.C.
2023
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| Accés en línia: | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2638 |
| _version_ | 1799769447560380416 |
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| author | Von Thaden Ugalde, Juan José Lithgow, Debora Revollo-Fernández, Daniel A. Salazar-Vargas, María del Pilar Rodríguez de los Santos, Aram |
| author_facet | Von Thaden Ugalde, Juan José Lithgow, Debora Revollo-Fernández, Daniel A. Salazar-Vargas, María del Pilar Rodríguez de los Santos, Aram |
| author_sort | Von Thaden Ugalde, Juan José |
| collection | MYB |
| description | In recent decades, anthropogenic activity has driven deforestation or the replacement of natural ecosystems, particularly forests, subsequently diminishing their capacity to provide a range of environmental services crucial for ensuring human well-being. Understanding land-use change dynamics and identifying its key drivers are essential for devising region-specific strategies. The main objective of this study was to understand and predict land-use and vegetation change dynamics in three basins in Mexico (Ameca-Mascota in Jalisco, Del Carmen in Chihuahua, and Jamapa in Veracruz), each exhibiting different levels of deforestation over a period of 25 years. This included analyzing historical trends, identifying biophysical and socioeconomic factors contributing to deforestation, and assessing future deforestation scenarios for 2026 and 2041 using Markov chains. Our findings suggest that land-use and vegetation change dynamics over the past 25 years lean toward deforestation, and future projections indicate that this deforestation trend is unlikely to change for the years 2026 and 2041. The two most significant drivers in all three basins were distance to roads and the vegetation edges, suggesting that deforestation is higher in areas close to roads and vegetation edges. This information is pivotal for developing conservation and restoration strategies in the three basins to reverse the current and future deforestation trends. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-2638 |
| institution | Madera y Bosques |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publisher | Instituto de Ecología, A.C. |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-26382024-04-02T00:07:30Z Land use and vegetation changes in three Mexican Basins with Markov Models Cambios en uso de suelo y vegetación en tres cuencas de México con modelos de Markov Von Thaden Ugalde, Juan José Lithgow, Debora Revollo-Fernández, Daniel A. Salazar-Vargas, María del Pilar Rodríguez de los Santos, Aram análisis prospectivo análisis retrospectivo deforestación impulsores de deforestación monitoreo recuperación prospective analysis retrospective analysis deforestation drivers monitoring recovery In recent decades, anthropogenic activity has driven deforestation or the replacement of natural ecosystems, particularly forests, subsequently diminishing their capacity to provide a range of environmental services crucial for ensuring human well-being. Understanding land-use change dynamics and identifying its key drivers are essential for devising region-specific strategies. The main objective of this study was to understand and predict land-use and vegetation change dynamics in three basins in Mexico (Ameca-Mascota in Jalisco, Del Carmen in Chihuahua, and Jamapa in Veracruz), each exhibiting different levels of deforestation over a period of 25 years. This included analyzing historical trends, identifying biophysical and socioeconomic factors contributing to deforestation, and assessing future deforestation scenarios for 2026 and 2041 using Markov chains. Our findings suggest that land-use and vegetation change dynamics over the past 25 years lean toward deforestation, and future projections indicate that this deforestation trend is unlikely to change for the years 2026 and 2041. The two most significant drivers in all three basins were distance to roads and the vegetation edges, suggesting that deforestation is higher in areas close to roads and vegetation edges. This information is pivotal for developing conservation and restoration strategies in the three basins to reverse the current and future deforestation trends. En las últimas décadas, la actividad antropogénica ha impulsado la deforestación o sustitución de los ecosistemas naturales, en particular los bosques, lo que a su vez ha reducido su capacidad para brindar una gama de servicios ambientales importantes para asegurar el bienestar humano. El entender cómo es la dinámica de cambio de uso de suelo e identificar sus principales impulsores es clave para la generación de estrategias específicas para cada región. El objetivo principal de este estudio fue comprender y predecir las dinámicas de cambio de uso de suelo y vegetación en tres cuencas de México (Ameca-Mascota en Jalisco, Del Carmen en Chihuahua y Jamapa en Veracruz) con diferentes niveles de deforestación, a lo largo de un período de 25 años. Esto incluyó el análisis de tendencias históricas, la identificación de factores biofísicos y socioeconómicos que contribuyen a la deforestación, y la evaluación de escenarios futuros de deforestación para los años 2026 y 2041 utilizando cadenas de Markov. Los resultados sugieren que la dinámica de cambio de uso suelo y vegetación en los últimos 25 años tiende hacia a la deforestación, y las proyecciones a futuro sugieren que esta dinámica de deforestación no va a cambiar para los años del 2026 y 2041. En las tres cuencas los dos impulsores más significativos fueron la distancia a caminos y al borde de la vegetación, lo que sugiere que la deforestación es mayor en zonas cercanas a los caminos y a los bordes de la vegetación. Esta información es clave para generar estrategias de conservación y restauración en las tres cuencas para revertir la tendencia de deforestación actual y futura. Instituto de Ecología, A.C. 2023-12-22 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículo evaluado por pares application/pdf application/pdf https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2638 10.21829/myb.2023.2932638 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 29 No. 3 (2023): Autumn 2023 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 29 Núm. 3 (2023): Otoño 2023 2448-7597 1405-0471 spa https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2638/2489 https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2638/2488 10.21829/myb.2020.2611096 10.21829/myb.2020.2621092 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Von Thaden Ugalde, Juan José Lithgow, Debora Revollo-Fernández, Daniel A. Salazar-Vargas, María del Pilar Rodríguez de los Santos, Aram Land use and vegetation changes in three Mexican Basins with Markov Models |
| title | Land use and vegetation changes in three Mexican Basins with Markov Models |
| title_full | Land use and vegetation changes in three Mexican Basins with Markov Models |
| title_fullStr | Land use and vegetation changes in three Mexican Basins with Markov Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Land use and vegetation changes in three Mexican Basins with Markov Models |
| title_short | Land use and vegetation changes in three Mexican Basins with Markov Models |
| title_sort | land use and vegetation changes in three mexican basins with markov models |
| url | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2638 |
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