Dynamic modeling of forest fires in the Eastern Hills of Bogota, Colombia
A simulation model is proposed to explain the dynamics of forest fires in the Eastern Hills of Bogotá, taking into account the number of fire events in the area, climatic variability and some factors such as hydric balance, vegetation cover, both goods and ecosystem services, gorse (Ulex europaeus)...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | spa |
| Published: |
Instituto de Ecología, A.C.
2018
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| Online Access: | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2431662 |
| _version_ | 1799769349644353536 |
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| author | Ocampo-Zuleta, Korina Beltrán-Vargas, Julio |
| author_facet | Ocampo-Zuleta, Korina Beltrán-Vargas, Julio |
| author_sort | Ocampo-Zuleta, Korina |
| collection | MYB |
| description | A simulation model is proposed to explain the dynamics of forest fires in the Eastern Hills of Bogotá, taking into account the number of fire events in the area, climatic variability and some factors such as hydric balance, vegetation cover, both goods and ecosystem services, gorse (Ulex europaeus) and fire causes, which explain the incidence of each one in the generation of fires. This modeling was based on the correlation of the variables and obtaining the formula of the model by linear regression. The behavior of the hydrological cycle takes into account two calendar years, one with low and another with greater precipitation, 2001 and 2011 respectively, where the importance of infiltration in the occurrence of forest fires and the dispersion of gorse is evident. Regarding the vegetation cover, the influence of the change of use in the soil is shown, in addition to being one of the causes in the loss of the goods and services provided by the forests, along with the rapid propagation of the invasive species, known as gorse that, due to its scattering and dry coverage as well as production abilities, it is clearly a factor in the spread of forest fires. Finally, it was determined that the number of forest fires is six (6) when the following conditions are given: first the temperature is high, secondly the precipitation is low and thirdly the fuel (vegetation) is kept constant. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-1662 |
| institution | Madera y Bosques |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Instituto de Ecología, A.C. |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-16622022-11-29T22:54:26Z Dynamic modeling of forest fires in the Eastern Hills of Bogota, Colombia Modelación Dinámica de incendios forestales en los Cerros Orientales de Bogotá, Colombia Ocampo-Zuleta, Korina Beltrán-Vargas, Julio Eastern Hills vegetation cover goods and ecosystem services Ulex europaeus Cerros Orientales cobertura vegetal bienes y servicios ecosistémicos Ulex europaeus. A simulation model is proposed to explain the dynamics of forest fires in the Eastern Hills of Bogotá, taking into account the number of fire events in the area, climatic variability and some factors such as hydric balance, vegetation cover, both goods and ecosystem services, gorse (Ulex europaeus) and fire causes, which explain the incidence of each one in the generation of fires. This modeling was based on the correlation of the variables and obtaining the formula of the model by linear regression. The behavior of the hydrological cycle takes into account two calendar years, one with low and another with greater precipitation, 2001 and 2011 respectively, where the importance of infiltration in the occurrence of forest fires and the dispersion of gorse is evident. Regarding the vegetation cover, the influence of the change of use in the soil is shown, in addition to being one of the causes in the loss of the goods and services provided by the forests, along with the rapid propagation of the invasive species, known as gorse that, due to its scattering and dry coverage as well as production abilities, it is clearly a factor in the spread of forest fires. Finally, it was determined that the number of forest fires is six (6) when the following conditions are given: first the temperature is high, secondly the precipitation is low and thirdly the fuel (vegetation) is kept constant. Se propone un modelo de simulación para explicar la dinámica de incendios forestales en los Cerros Orientales de Bogotá, para lo cual se tiene en cuenta el número de eventos de fuego en la zona, la variabilidad climática y factores como balance hídrico, cobertura vegetal, bienes y servicios ecosistémicos, retamo espinoso (Ulex europaeus) y causalidad del fuego, que explican la incidencia de cada uno en la generación de incendios. La modelación se basó en la correlación de las variables y la obtención de la fórmula del modelo mediante regresión lineal. El comportamiento del ciclo hidrológico tiene en cuenta dos años con menor y mayor precipitación, 2001 y 2011 respectivamente, donde se evidencia la importancia de la infiltración en la ocurrencia de los incendios forestales y la dispersión del retamo espinoso. En cuanto a la cobertura vegetal, se muestra la influencia que tiene el cambio de uso en el suelo, además de ser una de las causales en la pérdida de los bienes y servicios ecosistémicos provistos por los bosques, junto con la propagación rápida de la especie invasora retamo espinoso que, por sus habilidades de dispersión y de producción de cobertura seca, es un factor de propagación de incendios forestales. Finalmente, se logró determinar que el número de incendios forestales es de seis (6) cuando la temperatura es alta, la precipitación baja y se mantiene constante el combustible (vegetación). Instituto de Ecología, A.C. 2018-11-09 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículo evaluado por pares application/pdf application/xml https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2431662 10.21829/myb.2018.2431662 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 24 No. 3 (2018): Otoño 2018 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 24 Núm. 3 (2018): Otoño 2018 2448-7597 1405-0471 spa https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2431662/1821 https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2431662/1897 Derechos de autor 2018 Madera y Bosques |
| spellingShingle | Ocampo-Zuleta, Korina Beltrán-Vargas, Julio Dynamic modeling of forest fires in the Eastern Hills of Bogota, Colombia |
| title | Dynamic modeling of forest fires in the Eastern Hills of Bogota, Colombia |
| title_full | Dynamic modeling of forest fires in the Eastern Hills of Bogota, Colombia |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic modeling of forest fires in the Eastern Hills of Bogota, Colombia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic modeling of forest fires in the Eastern Hills of Bogota, Colombia |
| title_short | Dynamic modeling of forest fires in the Eastern Hills of Bogota, Colombia |
| title_sort | dynamic modeling of forest fires in the eastern hills of bogota, colombia |
| url | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2431662 |
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