Actual and potential distribution of Pinus engelmannii Carriére under climate change scenarios
Ecological niche models (ENMs) are a tool to understand the impact of climate change on the distribution of species. The objective of this study was to generate ENMs to predict the current and potential distribution of Pinus engelmannii Carriére. The models were created in ‘kuenm’, an R package that...
| Hoofdauteurs: | , |
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| Formaat: | Online |
| Taal: | spa |
| Gepubliceerd in: |
Instituto de Ecología, A.C.
2021
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| Online toegang: | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2117 |
| _version_ | 1799769406058790912 |
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| author | Jiménez Salazar, Miguel Ángel Méndez González, Jorge |
| author_facet | Jiménez Salazar, Miguel Ángel Méndez González, Jorge |
| author_sort | Jiménez Salazar, Miguel Ángel |
| collection | MYB |
| description | Ecological niche models (ENMs) are a tool to understand the impact of climate change on the distribution of species. The objective of this study was to generate ENMs to predict the current and potential distribution of Pinus engelmannii Carriére. The models were created in ‘kuenm’, an R package that uses Maxent as modelling algorithm. We used 364 meticulously cleaned species occurrence records, 15 bioclimatic variables, and climatic projections from four General Circulation Models (CGMs) to 2050, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The ENMs were evaluated according to their statistical significance, partial ROC, omission rate (<5%), AIC, and response of the variable. A total of 1827 candidate ENMs were generated, the one that showed the best performance was of quadratic type. Bio 1 [Average annual temperature (ºC)] and Bio 17 [Precipitation of ¼ driest annual (mm)], are the variables that best predict the distribution of P. engelmannii, contributing to the model with 75.6% and 6.3%. The areas of high suitability for this species occur discontinuously in Chihuahua (29 090 km2) and Durango (9310 km2) states; their preferences are between 9 ºC and 12 ºC (Bio 1). Apparently, this species is not susceptible to climate change, because when transferring the model and despite an increase of almost 2 ºC (Bio 1) to the year 2050 in its current distribution, no new suitable areas are predicted, but neither the existing ones are lost. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-2117 |
| institution | Madera y Bosques |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Instituto de Ecología, A.C. |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-21172022-11-29T22:18:52Z Actual and potential distribution of Pinus engelmannii Carriére under climate change scenarios Distribución actual y potencial de Pinus engelmannii Carriére bajo escenarios de cambio climático Jiménez Salazar, Miguel Ángel Méndez González, Jorge idoneidad Maxent modelos climáticos MOP nicho ecológico suitability Maxent climatic models MOP ecological niche Ecological niche models (ENMs) are a tool to understand the impact of climate change on the distribution of species. The objective of this study was to generate ENMs to predict the current and potential distribution of Pinus engelmannii Carriére. The models were created in ‘kuenm’, an R package that uses Maxent as modelling algorithm. We used 364 meticulously cleaned species occurrence records, 15 bioclimatic variables, and climatic projections from four General Circulation Models (CGMs) to 2050, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The ENMs were evaluated according to their statistical significance, partial ROC, omission rate (<5%), AIC, and response of the variable. A total of 1827 candidate ENMs were generated, the one that showed the best performance was of quadratic type. Bio 1 [Average annual temperature (ºC)] and Bio 17 [Precipitation of ¼ driest annual (mm)], are the variables that best predict the distribution of P. engelmannii, contributing to the model with 75.6% and 6.3%. The areas of high suitability for this species occur discontinuously in Chihuahua (29 090 km2) and Durango (9310 km2) states; their preferences are between 9 ºC and 12 ºC (Bio 1). Apparently, this species is not susceptible to climate change, because when transferring the model and despite an increase of almost 2 ºC (Bio 1) to the year 2050 in its current distribution, no new suitable areas are predicted, but neither the existing ones are lost. Los modelos de nicho ecológico (MNE) son una herramienta para conocer el impacto del cambio climático sobre la distribución de las especies. El objetivo de este estudio fue generar MNE para predecir la distribución actual y potencial de Pinus engelmannii Carriére. Los modelos se crearon en ‘kuenm’, un paquete de R que usa como algoritmo a Maxent. Se utilizaron 346 registros de presencia de la especie cuidadosamente depurados, 15 variables bioclimáticas y proyecciones climáticas de cuatro modelos de circulación general (MCGs) al 2050, bajo dos trayectorias de concentración representativas (RCPs) 4.5 y 8.5. Los MNE fueron evaluados acorde con su significancia estadística, ROC parcial, tasa de omisión (<5%), AIC y respuesta de la variable. Se generaron 1827 modelos candidatos, el que mejor desempeño mostró fue de tipo cuadrático. Bio 1 [temperatura media anual (°C)] y Bio 17 [precipitación de ¼ anual más seco (mm)], son las variables que mejor predicen la distribución de P. engelmannii, contribuyendo al modelo con 75.6% y 6.3%. Las áreas de idoneidad alta para esta especie ocurren de forma discontinua en Chihuahua (29 090 km2) y Durango (9310 km2), sus preferencias son entre 9 °C y 12 °C (Bio 1). Al parecer esta especie no es susceptible al cambio en el clima, pues al transferir el modelo y a pesar de un incremento de casi 2 °C (Bio 1) al 2050 en su distribución actual, no se predicen nuevas áreas idóneas, pero tampoco se pierden las existentes. Instituto de Ecología, A.C. 2021-12-23 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículo evaluado por pares application/pdf text/xml https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2117 10.21829/myb.2021.2732117 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 27 No. 3 (2021): Autumn 2021; e2732117 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 27 Núm. 3 (2021): Otoño 2021; e2732117 2448-7597 1405-0471 spa https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2117/2305 https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2117/2349 10.21829/myb.2018.243513 10.21829/myb.2018.243620 Derechos de autor 2021 Madera y Bosques http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Jiménez Salazar, Miguel Ángel Méndez González, Jorge Actual and potential distribution of Pinus engelmannii Carriére under climate change scenarios |
| title | Actual and potential distribution of Pinus engelmannii Carriére under climate change scenarios |
| title_full | Actual and potential distribution of Pinus engelmannii Carriére under climate change scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Actual and potential distribution of Pinus engelmannii Carriére under climate change scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Actual and potential distribution of Pinus engelmannii Carriére under climate change scenarios |
| title_short | Actual and potential distribution of Pinus engelmannii Carriére under climate change scenarios |
| title_sort | actual and potential distribution of pinus engelmannii carriére under climate change scenarios |
| url | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2117 |
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