Current and future potential distribution of Coffea arabica L. in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico
Global warming is causing variations in the climate that poses a serious threat to natural systems, and Mexico is particularly exposed to the effects of climate change. In this context, coffee is one of the most susceptible crops to weather variations, as it requires a certain hydrothermal regime fo...
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| Fformat: | Online |
| Iaith: | spa |
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Instituto de Ecología, A.C.
2021
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| Mynediad Ar-lein: | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2070 |
| _version_ | 1799769398588735488 |
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| author | Gómez-Tosca, Elena G. Alvarado-Castillo, Gerardo Benítez, Griselda Cerdán-Cabrera, Carlos R. Estrada-Contreras, Israel |
| author_facet | Gómez-Tosca, Elena G. Alvarado-Castillo, Gerardo Benítez, Griselda Cerdán-Cabrera, Carlos R. Estrada-Contreras, Israel |
| author_sort | Gómez-Tosca, Elena G. |
| collection | MYB |
| description | Global warming is causing variations in the climate that poses a serious threat to natural systems, and Mexico is particularly exposed to the effects of climate change. In this context, coffee is one of the most susceptible crops to weather variations, as it requires a certain hydrothermal regime for its development. The aim of this work was to model the current and future potential distribution of this crop in the face of different climate change scenarios projected to 2050 and 2070 in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico using the Maxlike algorithm, through three general circulation models. An interval of reduction in the potential distribution of the current coffee area (924.5 km2) was determined from 4.74% to 61.67%, an interval of variation of 725 m to 1397 m a.s.l. at the potential minimum altitude and from 2221 m to 2308 m a.s.l. at the maximum potential altitude, and possible temperarure changes between 1.1 °C and 3.5 °C, which means the loss of climate-appropriate areas from 4.74% (43.8 km2) to 61.67% (570.1 km2) and changes in precipitation from -69 mm to 73 mm. These alterations suggest the affectation of the coffee area, including the possible disappearance of suitable environmental conditions in four of the main producing municipalities and the displacement of the crop to higher latitudes. Finally, it is risky to ignore the potential impacts that present and future climate can have on cultivation, so specific adaptation and mitigation measures are required for this crop. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-2070 |
| institution | Madera y Bosques |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Instituto de Ecología, A.C. |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-20702022-11-29T22:26:37Z Current and future potential distribution of Coffea arabica L. in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico Distribución potencial actual y futura de Coffea arabica L. en la subcuenca Decozalapa, Veracruz, México Gómez-Tosca, Elena G. Alvarado-Castillo, Gerardo Benítez, Griselda Cerdán-Cabrera, Carlos R. Estrada-Contreras, Israel cambio climático escenarios de cambio climático MaxLike modelos de circulación general nicho ecológico rutas de concentración representativas. climatic change climatic change scenarios Maxlike general circulation models ecological niche representative concentration pathways Global warming is causing variations in the climate that poses a serious threat to natural systems, and Mexico is particularly exposed to the effects of climate change. In this context, coffee is one of the most susceptible crops to weather variations, as it requires a certain hydrothermal regime for its development. The aim of this work was to model the current and future potential distribution of this crop in the face of different climate change scenarios projected to 2050 and 2070 in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico using the Maxlike algorithm, through three general circulation models. An interval of reduction in the potential distribution of the current coffee area (924.5 km2) was determined from 4.74% to 61.67%, an interval of variation of 725 m to 1397 m a.s.l. at the potential minimum altitude and from 2221 m to 2308 m a.s.l. at the maximum potential altitude, and possible temperarure changes between 1.1 °C and 3.5 °C, which means the loss of climate-appropriate areas from 4.74% (43.8 km2) to 61.67% (570.1 km2) and changes in precipitation from -69 mm to 73 mm. These alterations suggest the affectation of the coffee area, including the possible disappearance of suitable environmental conditions in four of the main producing municipalities and the displacement of the crop to higher latitudes. Finally, it is risky to ignore the potential impacts that present and future climate can have on cultivation, so specific adaptation and mitigation measures are required for this crop. El calentamiento global está provocando variaciones en el clima, lo cual representa una amenaza grave para los sistemas naturales, y México está particularmente expuesto a los efectos del cambio climático. En este sentido, el café es uno de los cultivos más susceptibles a las variaciones meteorológicas, pues requiere de un determinado régimen hidrotérmico para su desarrollo. El objetivo de este trabajo fue modelar la distribución potencial actual y futura de este cultivo ante diferentes escenarios de cambio climático proyectados al 2050 y 2070 en la subcuenca Decozalapa, Veracruz, México, usando el algoritmo Maxlike, a través de tres modelos de circulación general. Se determinó un intervalo de reducción de la distribución potencial de la superficie actual de café (924.5 km2) de entre 4.74 % y 61.67 %, un intervalo de 725 m a 1397 m s.n.m. en la altitud mínima potencial y de 2221 m a 2308 m s.n.m. en la altitud potencial máxima, un aumento posible de la temperatura de entre 1.1 °C y 3.5 °C, lo que implica la pérdida de áreas con idoneidad climática de 4.74% (43.8 km2) a 61.67% (570.1 km2) y cambios en la precipitación de -69 mm a 73 mm. Estas alteraciones sugieren la afectación de la zona cafetalera, incluyendo la posible desaparición de condiciones ambientales adecuadas en cuatro de los principales municipios productores y el desplazamiento del cultivo a latitudes superiores. Finalmente, es arriesgado ignorar los impactos potenciales que el clima presente y futuro puede tener sobre el café, por lo que se requiere tomar medidas de adaptación y mitigación específicas para este cultivo. Instituto de Ecología, A.C. 2021-12-21 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículo evaluado por pares text/xml application/pdf https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2070 10.21829/myb.2021.2722070 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 27 No. 2 (2021): Summer 2021; e2722070 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 27 Núm. 2 (2021): Verano 2021; e2722070 2448-7597 1405-0471 spa https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2070/2332 https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2070/2280 10.21829/myb.2018.243577 10.21829/myb.2018.243454 Derechos de autor 2021 Madera y Bosques http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Gómez-Tosca, Elena G. Alvarado-Castillo, Gerardo Benítez, Griselda Cerdán-Cabrera, Carlos R. Estrada-Contreras, Israel Current and future potential distribution of Coffea arabica L. in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico |
| title | Current and future potential distribution of Coffea arabica L. in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico |
| title_full | Current and future potential distribution of Coffea arabica L. in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico |
| title_fullStr | Current and future potential distribution of Coffea arabica L. in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current and future potential distribution of Coffea arabica L. in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico |
| title_short | Current and future potential distribution of Coffea arabica L. in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico |
| title_sort | current and future potential distribution of coffea arabica l. in the decozalapa subbasin, veracruz, mexico |
| url | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/2070 |
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