Habitat suitability for Swietenia macrophylla in climate change scenarios in Mexico
Ecological niche models allow determination of the habitat suitability of species. The objective of the present study was to determine habitat suitability for Swietenia macrophylla King (mahogany) under two scenarios of climate change in Mexico. For the modeling, the MaxEnt 3.3.3 algorithm was used....
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | spa |
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Instituto de Ecología, A.C.
2020
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| Online Access: | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/1954 |
| _version_ | 1799769386451468288 |
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| author | Ramírez-Magil, Gregorio Botello, Francisco Navarro-Martínez, María Angélica |
| author_facet | Ramírez-Magil, Gregorio Botello, Francisco Navarro-Martínez, María Angélica |
| author_sort | Ramírez-Magil, Gregorio |
| collection | MYB |
| description | Ecological niche models allow determination of the habitat suitability of species. The objective of the present study was to determine habitat suitability for Swietenia macrophylla King (mahogany) under two scenarios of climate change in Mexico. For the modeling, the MaxEnt 3.3.3 algorithm was used. The species records of the 2009-2014 National Forest and the Soils Inventory were used as the primary source of information. The predictors were the raster of the observed and representative data interpolations for 19 bioclimatic variables, from 1960-1990, 2050 (average from 2041 to 2060), and 2070 (average from 2061-2080), RCP 4.5, the general circulation model MRI-Worldclim CGCM3 with a spatial resolution of approximately 1 km2, and the Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad edaphology raster with a spatial resolution of 90 m2. For the 2050 scenario, a loss of suitable habitat of 39.8% is projected, while for the 2070 scenario this loss is 47.6% compared to the 1960-1990 scenario. It is concluded that under both future scenarios, suitable habitat conditions will remain mainly in the states of Campeche and Quintana Roo, the latter of which will conserve about 50% of the suitable habitat. These results permit the development of strategies for the conservation, use and mitigation of the impact of climate change to ensure the survival and use of mahogany and the ecosystems in which it inhabits. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-1954 |
| institution | Madera y Bosques |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | Instituto de Ecología, A.C. |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-19542022-11-29T22:34:26Z Habitat suitability for Swietenia macrophylla in climate change scenarios in Mexico Idoneidad de hábitat para Swietenia macrophylla en escenarios de cambio climático en México Ramírez-Magil, Gregorio Botello, Francisco Navarro-Martínez, María Angélica caoba conservación distribución hábitat idóneo MaxEnt variables bioclimáticas mahogany conservation distribution suitable habitat MaxEnt bioclimatic variables Ecological niche models allow determination of the habitat suitability of species. The objective of the present study was to determine habitat suitability for Swietenia macrophylla King (mahogany) under two scenarios of climate change in Mexico. For the modeling, the MaxEnt 3.3.3 algorithm was used. The species records of the 2009-2014 National Forest and the Soils Inventory were used as the primary source of information. The predictors were the raster of the observed and representative data interpolations for 19 bioclimatic variables, from 1960-1990, 2050 (average from 2041 to 2060), and 2070 (average from 2061-2080), RCP 4.5, the general circulation model MRI-Worldclim CGCM3 with a spatial resolution of approximately 1 km2, and the Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad edaphology raster with a spatial resolution of 90 m2. For the 2050 scenario, a loss of suitable habitat of 39.8% is projected, while for the 2070 scenario this loss is 47.6% compared to the 1960-1990 scenario. It is concluded that under both future scenarios, suitable habitat conditions will remain mainly in the states of Campeche and Quintana Roo, the latter of which will conserve about 50% of the suitable habitat. These results permit the development of strategies for the conservation, use and mitigation of the impact of climate change to ensure the survival and use of mahogany and the ecosystems in which it inhabits. Los modelos de nicho ecológico permiten determinar la idoneidad de hábitat de las especies. El objetivo del presente estudio fue determinar la idoneidad de hábitat de Swietenia macrophylla King (caoba) en dos escenarios de cambio climático en México. Para la modelación se empleó el algoritmo MaxEnt 3.3.3. Como fuente primaria de información se utilizaron los registros de la especie obtenidos del Inventario Nacional Forestal y de Suelos 2009-2014. Los predictores fueron los raster de 19 variables bioclimáticas de las interpolaciones de datos observados y representativos de 1960-1990, 2050 (promedio de 2041 a 2060) y 2070 (promedio de 2061-2080), los RCP 4.5 y el modelo de circulación general MRI-CGCM3 de Worldclim, con una resolución espacial aproximada a 1 km2 y el raster de edafología de la Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad con una resolución espacial de 90 m2. Para el escenario 2050 se proyecta una pérdida de hábitat idóneo de 39.79%; mientras que para el escenario 2070, esta es de 47.60% respecto al escenario presente. Se concluye que en los dos escenarios las condiciones de hábitat idóneo permanecerán principalmente en los estados de Campeche y Quintana Roo, pero este último conservará cerca de 50% del hábitat idóneo. Los resultados permitirán generar estrategias de conservación, aprovechamiento y mitigación del impacto del cambio climático que aseguren la sobrevivencia y aprovechamiento de la caoba y los ecosistemas en los que habita. Instituto de Ecología, A.C. 2020-09-28 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículo evaluado por pares application/pdf text/xml https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/1954 10.21829/myb.2020.2631954 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 26 No. 3 (2020): Autumn 2020; e2631954 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 26 Núm. 3 (2020): Otoño 2020; e2631954 2448-7597 1405-0471 spa https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/1954/2103 https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/1954/2136 10.21829/myb.2017.23271 10.21829/myb.2018.243127 Derechos de autor 2020 Madera y Bosques http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Ramírez-Magil, Gregorio Botello, Francisco Navarro-Martínez, María Angélica Habitat suitability for Swietenia macrophylla in climate change scenarios in Mexico |
| title | Habitat suitability for Swietenia macrophylla in climate change scenarios in Mexico |
| title_full | Habitat suitability for Swietenia macrophylla in climate change scenarios in Mexico |
| title_fullStr | Habitat suitability for Swietenia macrophylla in climate change scenarios in Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed | Habitat suitability for Swietenia macrophylla in climate change scenarios in Mexico |
| title_short | Habitat suitability for Swietenia macrophylla in climate change scenarios in Mexico |
| title_sort | habitat suitability for swietenia macrophylla in climate change scenarios in mexico |
| url | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/1954 |
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