Economic viability of REDD+ project in the Brasilian Amazonia
This study aims to estimate the profitability and to evaluate the economic risks of REDD + projects in the Brazilian Amazon. The data were obtained through interviews and questionnaires to the proponents of the private REDD + projects of Amazonia. The economic risk was calculated using sensitivity a...
| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Online |
| Langue: | spa |
| Publié: |
Instituto de Ecología, A.C.
2020
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| Accès en ligne: | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2611761 |
| _version_ | 1799769357585219584 |
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| author | Plata Fajardo, Ana Milena Timofeiczyk Junior, Romano Silva, Zenobio Abel Gouvêa Perelli da Gama e Silva, João Carlos Garzel Leodoro da Juazeiro dos Santos, Anadalvo Mosquera Agudelo, Paula Andrea |
| author_facet | Plata Fajardo, Ana Milena Timofeiczyk Junior, Romano Silva, Zenobio Abel Gouvêa Perelli da Gama e Silva, João Carlos Garzel Leodoro da Juazeiro dos Santos, Anadalvo Mosquera Agudelo, Paula Andrea |
| author_sort | Plata Fajardo, Ana Milena |
| collection | MYB |
| description | This study aims to estimate the profitability and to evaluate the economic risks of REDD + projects in the Brazilian Amazon. The data were obtained through interviews and questionnaires to the proponents of the private REDD + projects of Amazonia. The economic risk was calculated using sensitivity analysis of the key project variables and the probability of project profitability through the Monte Carlo Simulation Method. The results indicate that the variable cost was responsible for 80% of the total costs. Fixed costs accounted for 20% of total costs. The result of the cash flow risk analysis concluded that REDD + projects in the Brazilian Amazon are viable, Internal Rate of Return of 11.49% a.a. was greater than the 10% a.a. Minimum Attractiveness Rate. The point at which the project computes a positive NPV is the price of BRL 18.6. Projects that sold VCUs at a price lower than BRL 18.6 may be financially unfeasible. The Monte Carlo simulation showed that the probability of obtaining a TIR of 10% a.a. or more is 51.53% a.a. It is concluded that REDD + projects in the Amazon have a positive return probability approaching 50%, but this return is not as attractive. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-1761 |
| institution | Madera y Bosques |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | Instituto de Ecología, A.C. |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-17612022-11-29T22:39:54Z Economic viability of REDD+ project in the Brasilian Amazonia Viabilidad económica de proyectos REDD+ en la Amazonia brasileña Plata Fajardo, Ana Milena Timofeiczyk Junior, Romano Silva, Zenobio Abel Gouvêa Perelli da Gama e Silva, João Carlos Garzel Leodoro da Juazeiro dos Santos, Anadalvo Mosquera Agudelo, Paula Andrea REDD cost risk evaluation cash flow carbon market VCUs Monte Carlo simulation costos proyectos REDD evaluación de riesgo flujo de caja mercado de carbono VCUs simulación de Monte Carlo This study aims to estimate the profitability and to evaluate the economic risks of REDD + projects in the Brazilian Amazon. The data were obtained through interviews and questionnaires to the proponents of the private REDD + projects of Amazonia. The economic risk was calculated using sensitivity analysis of the key project variables and the probability of project profitability through the Monte Carlo Simulation Method. The results indicate that the variable cost was responsible for 80% of the total costs. Fixed costs accounted for 20% of total costs. The result of the cash flow risk analysis concluded that REDD + projects in the Brazilian Amazon are viable, Internal Rate of Return of 11.49% a.a. was greater than the 10% a.a. Minimum Attractiveness Rate. The point at which the project computes a positive NPV is the price of BRL 18.6. Projects that sold VCUs at a price lower than BRL 18.6 may be financially unfeasible. The Monte Carlo simulation showed that the probability of obtaining a TIR of 10% a.a. or more is 51.53% a.a. It is concluded that REDD + projects in the Amazon have a positive return probability approaching 50%, but this return is not as attractive. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo estimar la viabilidad y evaluar los riesgos económicos de los proyectos de Reducción de Emisiones por Deforestación y Degradación forestal - REDD+ en la Amazonia brasileña. Los datos fueron obtenidos a través de entrevistas y cuestionarios a los proponentes de proyectos privados de REDD+ en la Amazonia. El riesgo económico se calculó de acuerdo con un análisis de sensibilidad de las variables clave de los proyectos y la probabilidad de viabilidad de proyectos mediante el método de Simulación Monte Carlo. Los resultados obtenidos indican que los costes variables corresponden a 80%, mientras que los fijos representaron 20% de los costos totales. Los resultados del análisis de riesgos sujetos a flujo de caja indican que los proyectos REDD+ en la Amazonia brasileña son viables, con Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR) de 11,49% por año, superior a la Tasa Mínima de Atractividad real de 10% por año utilizada. El punto en el que el proyecto mostró un Valor Actual Neto (VAN) positivo es el precio de BRL 18,6; donde proyectos que vendan Verified Carbon Units (VCUs) a un precio inferior a BRL 18,6 podrán presentar inviabilidad financiera. La simulación de Monte Carlo mostró que la probabilidad de obtener una TIR de 10% o más por año es 51,53%. Se concluye que los proyectos de REDD+ en la Amazonia tienen una probabilidad de retorno positivo próximo a 50%, pero esos retornos no llegan a ser tan atractivos en relación con el alto riesgo. Instituto de Ecología, A.C. 2020-04-11 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículo evaluado por pares application/pdf text/xml https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2611761 10.21829/myb.2020.2611761 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 26 No. 1 (2020): Primavera 2020 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 26 Núm. 1 (2020): Primavera 2020 2448-7597 1405-0471 spa https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2611761/2065 https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2611761/2173 10.21829/myb.2018.241196 Derechos de autor 2020 Madera y Bosques http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Plata Fajardo, Ana Milena Timofeiczyk Junior, Romano Silva, Zenobio Abel Gouvêa Perelli da Gama e Silva, João Carlos Garzel Leodoro da Juazeiro dos Santos, Anadalvo Mosquera Agudelo, Paula Andrea Economic viability of REDD+ project in the Brasilian Amazonia |
| title | Economic viability of REDD+ project in the Brasilian Amazonia |
| title_full | Economic viability of REDD+ project in the Brasilian Amazonia |
| title_fullStr | Economic viability of REDD+ project in the Brasilian Amazonia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic viability of REDD+ project in the Brasilian Amazonia |
| title_short | Economic viability of REDD+ project in the Brasilian Amazonia |
| title_sort | economic viability of redd+ project in the brasilian amazonia |
| url | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2611761 |
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