Modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere
Fire regimes in coniferous forests in Central Mexico have been severely disturbed by land use change and fire management activities. Hence, it is critical to assess the contribution of anthropic and environmental factors that drive the occurrence of fires in these forests. This information is essent...
| Príomhchruthaitheoirí: | , , , , , |
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| Formáid: | Online |
| Teanga: | eng spa |
| Foilsithe / Cruthaithe: |
Instituto de Ecología, A.C.
2018
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| Rochtain ar líne: | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2431591 |
| _version_ | 1799769341875453952 |
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| author | Farfán Gutiérrez, Michelle Pérez-Salicrup, Diego R. Flamenco-Sandoval, Alejandro Nicasio-Arzeta, Segio Mas, Jean-François Ramírez Ramírez, Isabel |
| author_facet | Farfán Gutiérrez, Michelle Pérez-Salicrup, Diego R. Flamenco-Sandoval, Alejandro Nicasio-Arzeta, Segio Mas, Jean-François Ramírez Ramírez, Isabel |
| author_sort | Farfán Gutiérrez, Michelle |
| collection | MYB |
| description | Fire regimes in coniferous forests in Central Mexico have been severely disturbed by land use change and fire management activities. Hence, it is critical to assess the contribution of anthropic and environmental factors that drive the occurrence of fires in these forests. This information is essential for the effective planning of fire management and wildfire prevention policies. In this study, we identified the potential drivers of fire occurrence within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) and modeled their spatial pattern through generalized linear mixed models. We employed fire event data for five years (2009-2013) and the spatial distribution of anthropic infrastructure and biophysical variables such as forest biomass and slope. We found fire occurrence increased with total population and forest edge density. The derived spatial model showed an acceptable accuracy (AUC = 0.71) for fire occurrence based on 2014 and 2015 fire events used to evaluate the model. To improve the model, we suggest the incorporation of direct fuel measurements. From our analyses, we suggest to develop fire management guidelines particularly in sites with high population density and close to forest fragments within the MBBR. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-1591 |
| institution | Madera y Bosques |
| language | eng spa |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Instituto de Ecología, A.C. |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-15912022-11-29T22:53:23Z Modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Modelación de los factores antrópicos como conductores de la ocurrencia de incendios forestales en la Reserva de la Biosfera de la Mariposa Monarca Farfán Gutiérrez, Michelle Pérez-Salicrup, Diego R. Flamenco-Sandoval, Alejandro Nicasio-Arzeta, Segio Mas, Jean-François Ramírez Ramírez, Isabel human factors coniferous forest generalized linear mixed models spatial probability factores humanos bosque de coníferas modelos mixtos lineales generalizados probabilidad espacial Fire regimes in coniferous forests in Central Mexico have been severely disturbed by land use change and fire management activities. Hence, it is critical to assess the contribution of anthropic and environmental factors that drive the occurrence of fires in these forests. This information is essential for the effective planning of fire management and wildfire prevention policies. In this study, we identified the potential drivers of fire occurrence within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) and modeled their spatial pattern through generalized linear mixed models. We employed fire event data for five years (2009-2013) and the spatial distribution of anthropic infrastructure and biophysical variables such as forest biomass and slope. We found fire occurrence increased with total population and forest edge density. The derived spatial model showed an acceptable accuracy (AUC = 0.71) for fire occurrence based on 2014 and 2015 fire events used to evaluate the model. To improve the model, we suggest the incorporation of direct fuel measurements. From our analyses, we suggest to develop fire management guidelines particularly in sites with high population density and close to forest fragments within the MBBR. Los regímenes de incendios en bosques de coníferas en el centro de México han sido severamente modificados por el cambio de uso de la tierra y las actividades de manejo de incendios. Por lo tanto, es crítico evaluar la contribución de factores antrópicos y ambientales que impulsan la ocurrencia de incendios en estos bosques. Esta información es esencial para la planificación eficaz de la gestión de incendios y las políticas de prevención de incendios forestales. En este estudio, identificamos los potenciales causantes de la aparición de incendios dentro de la Reserva de la Biosfera de las Mariposas Monarca (RBMM) y modelamos su patrón espacial a través de modelos lineales generalizados y mixtos. Utilizamos datos de eventos de incendios durante cinco años (2009-2013) y la distribución espacial de la infraestructura antrópica y variables biofísicas como la biomasa forestal y la pendiente. Se encontró que la ocurrencia de incendios aumentó con la población total y la densidad de los bordes del bosque. El modelo espacial derivado mostró una precisión aceptable (AUC = 0.71) para la ocurrencia de incendios basados en los eventos de incendios de 2014 y 2015 utilizados para evaluar el modelo. Para mejorar el modelo, sugerimos la incorporación de mediciones directas de combustible. A partir de nuestros análisis, se sugiere desarrollar pautas de manejo de incendios particularmente en sitios con alta densidad de población y cerca de fragmentos de bosque dentro de la RBMM. Instituto de Ecología, A.C. 2018-12-19 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículo evaluado por pares application/pdf application/xml https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2431591 10.21829/myb.2018.2431591 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 24 No. 3 (2018): Otoño 2018 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 24 Núm. 3 (2018): Otoño 2018 2448-7597 1405-0471 eng spa https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2431591/1851 https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2431591/1889 Derechos de autor 2018 Madera y Bosques |
| spellingShingle | Farfán Gutiérrez, Michelle Pérez-Salicrup, Diego R. Flamenco-Sandoval, Alejandro Nicasio-Arzeta, Segio Mas, Jean-François Ramírez Ramírez, Isabel Modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere |
| title | Modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere |
| title_full | Modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere |
| title_fullStr | Modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere |
| title_short | Modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere |
| title_sort | modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the monarch butterfly biosphere |
| url | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/e2431591 |
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