Distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) in the Hidalgo state, under current conditions and scenarios of climate change
The potential climatic areas for the distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) were obtained in the state of Hidalgo under actual conditions, with meteorological information of 1961-1990 as base line, and under climate change conditions wich were obtained with two models: GFDL-R30 and HadCM3 fo...
| Hlavní autoři: | , , |
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| Médium: | Online |
| Jazyk: | spa |
| Vydáno: |
Instituto de Ecología, A.C.
2016
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| On-line přístup: | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/1227 |
| _version_ | 1799769249494859776 |
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| author | Gómez Díaz, Jesús David Monterroso Rivas, Alejandro Ismael Tinoco Rueda, Juan Ángel |
| author_facet | Gómez Díaz, Jesús David Monterroso Rivas, Alejandro Ismael Tinoco Rueda, Juan Ángel |
| author_sort | Gómez Díaz, Jesús David |
| collection | MYB |
| description | The potential climatic areas for the distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) were obtained in the state of Hidalgo under actual conditions, with meteorological information of 1961-1990 as base line, and under climate change conditions wich were obtained with two models: GFDL-R30 and HadCM3 for two time scenarios (2020 and 2050). The adjustment rates in temperature and rainfall obtained for each model were applied on climatic influence areas delimitated according to Gómez et al. (2006). Asoil moisture balance in the state’s surface was calculated under current and climate change conditions using the Thornthwaite, modified version III methodology (Monterroso and Gómez, 2003). The present percentage of the state surface with the vegetation types associated with red cedar is of 9,8% and the surface percentage estimated with some degree of suitability for this specie, using the climatic characteristics of the baseline scenario, is of 30,4%. The results of applied GFDL-R30 model shows an increment on the total surface with some degree of suitability with respect of the baseline scenario of 3,1% and 4,4% for the years 2020 and 2050, respectively, with a differential increment within the suitability classes. The surface estimated with some degree of suitability applying the HadCM3 model shows a decrement of 0,9% for the year 2020 and 0,2% for 2050. However, the class of Moderate suitable, change from 10,5% on the baseline scenario to 0% and 1,3% for the years 2020 and 2050, respectively, with almost all the areas in the lowest level of suitability. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-1227 |
| institution | Madera y Bosques |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Instituto de Ecología, A.C. |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.myb.ojs.inecol.mx:article-12272022-11-30T00:37:37Z Distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) in the Hidalgo state, under current conditions and scenarios of climate change Distribución del cedro rojo (Cedrela odorata L.) en el estado de Hidalgo, bajo condiciones actuales y escenarios de cambio climático Gómez Díaz, Jesús David Monterroso Rivas, Alejandro Ismael Tinoco Rueda, Juan Ángel Water balance climate change red cedar agro climatic zoning Balance de humedad cambio climático cedro rojo zonificación agroclimática The potential climatic areas for the distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) were obtained in the state of Hidalgo under actual conditions, with meteorological information of 1961-1990 as base line, and under climate change conditions wich were obtained with two models: GFDL-R30 and HadCM3 for two time scenarios (2020 and 2050). The adjustment rates in temperature and rainfall obtained for each model were applied on climatic influence areas delimitated according to Gómez et al. (2006). Asoil moisture balance in the state’s surface was calculated under current and climate change conditions using the Thornthwaite, modified version III methodology (Monterroso and Gómez, 2003). The present percentage of the state surface with the vegetation types associated with red cedar is of 9,8% and the surface percentage estimated with some degree of suitability for this specie, using the climatic characteristics of the baseline scenario, is of 30,4%. The results of applied GFDL-R30 model shows an increment on the total surface with some degree of suitability with respect of the baseline scenario of 3,1% and 4,4% for the years 2020 and 2050, respectively, with a differential increment within the suitability classes. The surface estimated with some degree of suitability applying the HadCM3 model shows a decrement of 0,9% for the year 2020 and 0,2% for 2050. However, the class of Moderate suitable, change from 10,5% on the baseline scenario to 0% and 1,3% for the years 2020 and 2050, respectively, with almost all the areas in the lowest level of suitability. Se obtuvieron las áreas climáticas potenciales de distribución del cedro rojo (Cedrela odorata L.) en el estado de Hidalgo bajo condiciones actuales, con información meteorológica de 1961-1990 como escenario base, y bajo escenarios de cambio climático obtenidos con los modelos GFDL-R30 y el HadCM3 para los años 2020 y 2050. Se aplicaron las tasas de cambio en temperatura y precipitación sobre las áreas de influencia climática delimitadas de acuerdo a Gómez et al. (2006) . Se realizó un balance de humedad bajo condiciones actuales y de cambio climático aplicando la metodología de Thornthwaite modificada versión III (Monterroso y Gómez, 2003). Actualmente se reporta 9,8% de la superficie del estado con tipos de vegetación con los que se asocia el cedro rojo, y las estimaciones con las características climáticas del escenario base muestran que el 30,4% del estado presenta algún grado de aptitud para el desarrollo de esta especie. Los resultados del modelo GFDL-R30 indican un incremento en la superficie con algún nivel de aptitud, con respecto al escenario base, de 3,1% y 4,4% para el año 2020 y 2050, respectivamente. El aumento es diferencial dentro de las clases de aptitud. Para el modelo HadCM3 la superficie con algún nivel de aptitud disminuye 0,9% para el año 2020 y 0 ,2% para el año 2050. Sin embargo, el nivel de Moderadamente apto pasa de 10,5% en el escenario base a 0% y 1,3% para el año 2020 y 2050, respectivamente, ubicándose practicamente todas las áreas en el menor nivel de aptitud. Instituto de Ecología, A.C. 2016-08-30 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículo evaluado por pares application/pdf https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/1227 10.21829/myb.2007.1321227 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 13 No. 2 (2007): Otoño 2007; 29-49 Madera y Bosques; Vol. 13 Núm. 2 (2007): Otoño 2007; 29-49 2448-7597 1405-0471 spa https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/1227/1397 Derechos de autor 2016 Madera y Bosques |
| spellingShingle | Gómez Díaz, Jesús David Monterroso Rivas, Alejandro Ismael Tinoco Rueda, Juan Ángel Distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) in the Hidalgo state, under current conditions and scenarios of climate change |
| title | Distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) in the Hidalgo state, under current conditions and scenarios of climate change |
| title_full | Distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) in the Hidalgo state, under current conditions and scenarios of climate change |
| title_fullStr | Distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) in the Hidalgo state, under current conditions and scenarios of climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) in the Hidalgo state, under current conditions and scenarios of climate change |
| title_short | Distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) in the Hidalgo state, under current conditions and scenarios of climate change |
| title_sort | distribution of red cedar (cedrela odorata l.) in the hidalgo state, under current conditions and scenarios of climate change |
| url | https://myb.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/myb/article/view/1227 |
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