| Tóm tắt: | The environmental services provide ecosystems depend on predominant climate conditions of local scales, as well as in the vegetation structure and composition. The main goal of the present study was to simulate and quantify the impacts that a possible climate change have affect on the hydrologic regulation and on the water infiltration capacity in the National Park “El Chico”, Hidalgo. It was modeled the geographic distribution of climatic variables like temperature and precipitation, taking as baseline scenario the period of 1961-1990. It were applied the North American and English climate change models for the scenarios A2 and the years 2020 and 2050. The water balance was estimated according to the Thornthwaite modified or third version in order, to evaluate the hydrologic behavior and the infiltration capacity in different scenarios. The main results obtained by followins the english model show a decrease in aquifer recharge in 26% and 32% for 2020 and 2050, respectively. The North American model considers an increase in the infiltration rate of 6% and 22% for the 2020 and 2050, respectively. The growing period did not show significant variations in the studied scenarios. The English model pointed out more drastic conditions, because of it that must be considered to plan adoptive and mitigation measures to prevent park deterioration and it can continue providing environmental services deterioration that climate change put in risk.
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