Climate change and effects on vegetation in Veracruz, Mexico: an approach using ecological niche modelling
According to the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, human activities are the main responsible for global warming due to the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. This process is already causing changes in the geographical distribution of species as...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Online |
| Sprog: | eng |
| Udgivet: |
Instituto de Ecología, A.C.
2015
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| Online adgang: | https://abm.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/abm/article/view/1090 |
| _version_ | 1799771295367299072 |
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| author | Estrada-Contreras, Israel Equihua, Miguel Castillo-Campos, Gonzalo Rojas-Soto, Octavio |
| author_facet | Estrada-Contreras, Israel Equihua, Miguel Castillo-Campos, Gonzalo Rojas-Soto, Octavio |
| author_sort | Estrada-Contreras, Israel |
| collection | ABM |
| description | According to the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, human activities are the main responsible for global warming due to the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. This process is already causing changes in the geographical distribution of species as well as alterations in phenology. With this background, it is interesting to study the expected trends of change to be displayed by flora and fauna to face the new environmental conditions. This paper explores the likely changes in the composition of the main vegetation types in the state of Veracruz, Mexico under a climate change scenario. We analyzed the geographical and ecological patterns of change in a group of 51 characteristic species commonly associated to tropical evergreen forest, coniferous forest and cloud forest present in Veracruz. The approach followed was based on the technique of ecological niche modelling carried out with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP) and variables of future climatic condition (located by 2050 in time) estimated for an A2 scenario which is devised for a situation where humanity would be generating medium to high emissions. The results obtained for the current vegetation of Veracruz suggest a potential impact inducing 53% distribution change for tropical evergreen forest, 16% for coniferous forest and 49% for cloud forest. The results also suggest that some species may be extirpated from the state of Veracruz under the conditions expected by 2050, while a few others may find right conditions to increase their distribution. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.abm.ojs.inecol.mx:article-1090 |
| institution | Acta Botanica Mexicana |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | Instituto de Ecología, A.C. |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.abm.ojs.inecol.mx:article-10902022-12-23T04:54:42Z Climate change and effects on vegetation in Veracruz, Mexico: an approach using ecological niche modelling Cambio climático y sus efectos en la vegetación de Veracruz, México: una aproximación mediante modelado de nicho ecológico Estrada-Contreras, Israel Equihua, Miguel Castillo-Campos, Gonzalo Rojas-Soto, Octavio cloud forest coniferous forest GARP tropical evergreen forest Veracruz bosque de coníferas bosque mesófilo de montaña bosque tropical perennifolio GARP Veracruz According to the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, human activities are the main responsible for global warming due to the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. This process is already causing changes in the geographical distribution of species as well as alterations in phenology. With this background, it is interesting to study the expected trends of change to be displayed by flora and fauna to face the new environmental conditions. This paper explores the likely changes in the composition of the main vegetation types in the state of Veracruz, Mexico under a climate change scenario. We analyzed the geographical and ecological patterns of change in a group of 51 characteristic species commonly associated to tropical evergreen forest, coniferous forest and cloud forest present in Veracruz. The approach followed was based on the technique of ecological niche modelling carried out with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP) and variables of future climatic condition (located by 2050 in time) estimated for an A2 scenario which is devised for a situation where humanity would be generating medium to high emissions. The results obtained for the current vegetation of Veracruz suggest a potential impact inducing 53% distribution change for tropical evergreen forest, 16% for coniferous forest and 49% for cloud forest. The results also suggest that some species may be extirpated from the state of Veracruz under the conditions expected by 2050, while a few others may find right conditions to increase their distribution. De acuerdo con el último informe del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático, las actividades humanas son las principales responsables del calentamiento global observado en las últimas décadas y se debe al incremento en la concentración atmosférica de gases de efecto invernadero. Este proceso ya está causando cambios en la distribución geográfica de las especies, así como alteraciones en la fenología. En tal contexto, es interesante estudiar las posibles tendencias de cambio que podrían presentar la flora y fauna para hacer frente a las nuevas condiciones del medio ambiente. En este trabajo se exploran los posibles cambios en la composición de los principales tipos de vegetación en el estado de Veracruz, México, ante un escenario de cambio climático, mediante el análisis de los patrones de alteración geográfica y ecológica de un grupo de 51 especies comúnmente asociadas al bosque tropical perennifolio, el bosque de coníferas y el bosque mesófilo de montaña, presentes en el estado. El enfoque adoptado se basa en la técnica de modelado de nicho ecológico realizado con el Algoritmo Genético para la Producción de grupos de Reglas (GARP) y variables climatológicas estimadas para un escenario A2 que corresponde a una humanidad que genera emisiones medias-altas y derivan de proyecciones hechas a partir de las condiciones actuales hacia el año 2050. Los resultados obtenidos para la superficie actual de la vegetación del estado de Veracruz sugieren una afectación potencial de 53% del área de distribución para el bosque tropical perennifolio, de 16% para el bosque de coníferas y de 49% para el bosque mesófilo de montaña. Además, apuntan a que algunas especies tienen alta probabilidad de resultar extirpadas de la entidad bajo las condiciones esperadas en el 2050, mientras que otras encontrarán las condiciones adecuadas para incrementar su distribución. Instituto de Ecología, A.C. 2015-07-14 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion artículo evaluado por pares application/pdf text/html https://abm.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/abm/article/view/1090 10.21829/abm112.2015.1090 Acta Botanica Mexicana; No. 112 (2015); 73-93 Acta Botanica Mexicana; Núm. 112 (2015); 73-93 2448-7589 0187-7151 eng https://abm.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/abm/article/view/1090/1270 https://abm.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/abm/article/view/1090/1271 Derechos de autor 2016 Acta Botanica Mexicana https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Estrada-Contreras, Israel Equihua, Miguel Castillo-Campos, Gonzalo Rojas-Soto, Octavio Climate change and effects on vegetation in Veracruz, Mexico: an approach using ecological niche modelling |
| title | Climate change and effects on vegetation in Veracruz, Mexico: an approach using ecological niche modelling |
| title_full | Climate change and effects on vegetation in Veracruz, Mexico: an approach using ecological niche modelling |
| title_fullStr | Climate change and effects on vegetation in Veracruz, Mexico: an approach using ecological niche modelling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change and effects on vegetation in Veracruz, Mexico: an approach using ecological niche modelling |
| title_short | Climate change and effects on vegetation in Veracruz, Mexico: an approach using ecological niche modelling |
| title_sort | climate change and effects on vegetation in veracruz, mexico: an approach using ecological niche modelling |
| url | https://abm.ojs.inecol.mx/index.php/abm/article/view/1090 |
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